Pacers vs. Thunder Game 7 Championship Prediction And Odds

The Indiana Pacers find themselves on the brink of capturing the 2024-25 NBA championship, with just one win needed in what promises to be the season's final game. Throughout the postseason, they have triumphed over three opponents and pushed a fourth to the edge. Yet, astonishingly, they have not once been favored to win the championship.

Despite their struggles early in the regular season, starting with a 10-15 record, the Pacers were never viewed as contenders. The Oklahoma City Thunder, who burst out of the gate, and the defending champion Boston Celtics, who swept the Pacers last year, contributed to this perception. Even during the Eastern Conference playoffs, the Pacers remained underdogs. As they prepared to face the New York Knicks in the Eastern Conference Finals, they were still not seen as a serious threat.

A Series of Underdog Status

You would think that by the time the Finals arrived, perceptions would have shifted. However, the Pacers continued to be overlooked. They won Game 1 on the road but remained underdogs. After taking a 2-1 lead following Game 3, they still faced the same fate. Even with a seven-point lead entering the fourth quarter of Game 4, they were marginally considered underdogs, with the Thunder's odds at -108 compared to the Pacers' -106.

This consistent underdog status is rare in championship history. Typically, champions at least achieve favored status at some point during the playoffs. While there have been big underdog victories, such as the 2019 Raptors and the 2004 Pistons, those teams built substantial leads that forced bookmakers to reconsider. The 2015-16 Cavaliers might have seemed like a candidate for underdog status, but they began the season favored after a strong performance in the previous Finals. Reaching the final game without ever being the title favorite is almost unheard of.

The Pacers' Underdog Legacy

This underdog narrative feels fitting given the Pacers' remarkable postseason run. Their odds to win the Eastern Conference were as long as 30-to-1 before the playoffs, a rarity among finalists. In contrast, the Thunder entered the Finals as -700 favorites, matching the seventh-shortest odds in Finals history, reminiscent of the 2004 Los Angeles Lakers, who suffered a shocking upset against the Pistons. Now, the Pacers aim to replicate that historic feat.

They also have a chance to set a new record: Thursday's Game 6 victory marked their 10th playoff win as an underdog in 2025, tying them with the 2023 Heat for the record. However, they open Game 7 as 8.5-point underdogs on the road. A victory would not only secure their first championship but also establish a new record for the most underdog wins in a single postseason.

Analyzing the Matchup

On paper, the Pacers are justifiable underdogs. The Thunder boast a 10-2 home record this postseason, with an impressive +247 point differential. They still have MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and a historic 68-win regular season backing them. However, if the postseason were determined solely on paper, the Pacers would have been eliminated weeks ago.

In a single-game scenario, a Game 7 presents a unique challenge. The atmosphere is tense, and nerves can play a significant role. The question arises: who will feel more pressure—the young, favored Thunder, who have faced several close losses this postseason, or the resilient Pacers, who have defied expectations with historic upsets?

The Game 7 Dynamics

As the series progresses to Game 7, both teams will have adapted to each other's strategies. The pace of the game often slows, and success frequently hinges on making tough shots. While Shai Gilgeous-Alexander can deliver in clutch moments, the Thunder have struggled when he is not supported by his teammates. Conversely, nearly every member of the Pacers' rotation possesses a unique skill set, making them versatile and difficult to defend. They have maintained their momentum throughout the postseason, and Game 7 should be no different.

Although the Pacers will begin Game 7 as underdogs, it may take a significant lead in the second half for them to finally be viewed as favorites. They have thrived under the weight of doubt throughout the postseason, finding strength in their underdog status. Sunday presents an opportunity for them to seize the spotlight and prove that being the underdog does not preclude them from hoisting the championship trophy.

Game 6 Recap and Game 7 Preview

In Game 6, the Indiana Pacers delivered a commanding performance, defeating the Oklahoma City Thunder 108-91 as 5.5-point underdogs, forcing a decisive Game 7 in the 2025 NBA Finals. Remarkably, this victory marked their 10th outright win as underdogs this postseason.

Despite this achievement, the Thunder opened as 8.5-point favorites at BetMGM for Game 7, with a total set at 214.5—the lowest of the Finals. Oklahoma City entered the Finals as a substantial -700 favorite, while Indiana was a notable +500 underdog. Historically, only the 2004 Detroit Pistons have won a Finals series as underdogs with similar odds.

The Thunder also boasted the best against-the-spread record of any regular-season team in the last 35 years, finishing 55-23-4 ATS, but have struggled in the playoffs with a 10-12 ATS record. As they head into Game 7, the Thunder were previously a -2500 favorite when leading the series 3-2.

Sunday's matchup will mark the 20th Game 7 in NBA Finals history, setting the stage for an unforgettable conclusion to the season.

NBA Finals: Tyrese Haliburton Leads Pacers to Stunning Game 1 Comeback Against Thunder

In a breathtaking display of resilience, the Indiana Pacers captured Game 1 of the NBA Finals on Thursday night, edging out the Oklahoma City Thunder 111-110 and taking a 1-0 lead in the championship series.

Facing a daunting 15-point deficit in the fourth quarter, the Pacers rallied dramatically, seizing their first lead with just 0.3 seconds remaining. Tyrese Haliburton delivered the decisive blow with a clutch pull-up jumper, securing the victory. With only 2 minutes and 52 seconds left on the clock, Indiana was down by nine but closed the game with an impressive 12-2 run.

Haliburton contributed significantly with 14 points, 10 rebounds, and six assists, while the Thunder’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander put on a scoring clinic, netting 38 points despite the loss.

"Honestly, it was about hitting the reset button and focusing on each possession in the third quarter to chip away," Pacers coach Rick Carlisle reflected after the game.

For nearly the entire 48 minutes, the Thunder appeared poised to take the lead, bolstered by their relentless defense that forced 25 turnovers, including 19 in the first half. However, their offense struggled to capitalize on these opportunities, managing to score only 11 points off the turnovers.

Oklahoma City attempted 16 more shots than Indiana but struggled with efficiency, converting just 39.8% of their 98 attempts. Gilgeous-Alexander's impressive scoring was overshadowed by his shooting woes, as he made only 14 of his 30 attempts.

Before Haliburton’s game-winning shot, Gilgeous-Alexander had a chance to extend his team’s lead but missed a pull-up jumper that could have given the Thunder a three-point advantage.

Despite a subdued performance leading up to his clutch shot, Haliburton played a crucial role in the Pacers' balanced scoring effort. Pascal Siakam led the team with 19 points, with all five starters and six players overall contributing in double figures.

The Pacers' success from beyond the arc was pivotal, as they shot 18-of-39 from three-point range, an impressive 46.2%. Obi Toppin made a significant impact off the bench, sinking five three-pointers to help fuel the comeback.

"This journey is just beginning, and we need to stay focused on each other and the task at hand," Carlisle emphasized.

The teams will meet again for Game 2 on Sunday.

Boston Celtics Sends Kemba Walker to OKC Thunder

The Celtics are bringing Al Horford back, trading point guard Kemba Walker to Oklahoma City for the five-time All-Star on Friday in Brad Stevens' first major move since he moved from the Boston bench to the front office. Boston will also send the No. 16 overall draft pick and a 2025 second-rounder to the Thunder and receive 7-footer Moses Brown and a 2023 second-round pick in return. Oklahoma City now holds 19 first-round draft picks over the next seven years. Horford returns to Boston and gives the Celtics the frontcourt presence they've lacked since he left two seasons ago.

The 6-foot-9 was forward was a member of the NBA All-Defensive team with the Celtics in 2017-18 while also posting the best assist numbers of his career. Stevens coached Horford for three seasons and says he played a “critical role” while in Boston. "His ability to elevate teammates with his experience and leadership make for a great addition," Stevens said. "We also want to welcome Moses to Boston. He is a promising young player.” Walker joins a team that finished with the second-worst record in the West last season but showed potential with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who led the Thunder with 23.7 points per game, and Lu Dort, who averaged 14 points and was one of the league’s best defensive guards. Walker, 31, is guaranteed more than $73 million over the next two seasons. But after helping the Celtics reach the Eastern Conference finals in the NBA bubble last season the four-time All-Star he was limited by knee injuries to 43 games in 2021; he missed the last two games of the first-round playoff loss to the Brooklyn Nets. Walker's departure means Boston will rely more heavily on All-Stars Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown for scoring. Without further moves, it would also leave Marcus Smart and Payton Pritchard as the team's main options at point guard. But swapping his salary for Horford's will save the Celtics $9 million. “Kemba is a true professional and a great teammate and player,” Stevens said. “I want to thank him for his tremendous impact, and the positive contribution he’s made both to the Celtics and the city of Boston.” After playing his first nine seasons in Atlanta, Horford signed with Boston as a free agent in 2016 and led the team to the conference finals in his first two seasons. But he opted out after three seasons to go to Philadelphia, then the 76ers flipped him to the Thunder after one year. Horford, 35, averaged 14.2 points and 6.7 rebounds this season, but he played just 23 games before Oklahoma City shut him down in late March to take a look at younger players — including Brown. “Thank you to ... the entire Thunder organization for their professionalism during my time in Oklahoma City,” Horford tweeted. “While it was short, it was first class all the way and me and my family are extremely thankful and appreciative.” Brown, 21, was a first-team All-G-League selection this season, and the Thunder saw enough to call him up and award him a multiyear deal. The 7-footer averaged 8.6 points and 8.9 rebounds and tied a team record with 23 rebounds against the Celtics this season. “As soon as he got his opportunity, he really embraced it," Horford said during the team's exit interviews. "He took it by storm. Playing in this league is not easy, night in and night out to have to prepare, everything that it takes, and I felt like he was up for the challenge.”