The Indiana Pacers find themselves on the brink of capturing the
2024-25 NBA championship, with just one win needed in what promises to
be the season's final game. Throughout the postseason, they have
triumphed over three opponents and pushed a fourth to the edge. Yet,
astonishingly, they have not once been favored to win the championship.
Despite their struggles early in the regular season, starting with a
10-15 record, the Pacers were never viewed as contenders. The Oklahoma
City Thunder, who burst out of the gate, and the defending champion
Boston Celtics, who swept the Pacers last year, contributed to this
perception. Even during the Eastern Conference playoffs, the Pacers
remained underdogs. As they prepared to face the New York Knicks in the
Eastern Conference Finals, they were still not seen as a serious threat.
A Series of Underdog Status
You would think that by the time the Finals arrived, perceptions
would have shifted. However, the Pacers continued to be overlooked. They
won Game 1 on the road but remained underdogs. After taking a 2-1 lead
following Game 3, they still faced the same fate. Even with a
seven-point lead entering the fourth quarter of Game 4, they were
marginally considered underdogs, with the Thunder's odds at -108
compared to the Pacers' -106.
This consistent underdog status is rare in championship history.
Typically, champions at least achieve favored status at some point
during the playoffs. While there have been big underdog victories, such
as the 2019 Raptors and the 2004 Pistons, those teams built substantial
leads that forced bookmakers to reconsider. The 2015-16 Cavaliers might
have seemed like a candidate for underdog status, but they began the
season favored after a strong performance in the previous Finals.
Reaching the final game without ever being the title favorite is almost
unheard of.
The Pacers' Underdog Legacy
This underdog narrative feels fitting given the Pacers' remarkable
postseason run. Their odds to win the Eastern Conference were as long as
30-to-1 before the playoffs, a rarity among finalists. In contrast, the
Thunder entered the Finals as -700 favorites, matching the
seventh-shortest odds in Finals history, reminiscent of the 2004 Los
Angeles Lakers, who suffered a shocking upset against the Pistons. Now,
the Pacers aim to replicate that historic feat.
They also have a chance to set a new record: Thursday's Game 6
victory marked their 10th playoff win as an underdog in 2025, tying them
with the 2023 Heat for the record. However, they open Game 7 as
8.5-point underdogs on the road. A victory would not only secure their
first championship but also establish a new record for the most underdog
wins in a single postseason.
Analyzing the Matchup
On paper, the Pacers are justifiable underdogs. The Thunder boast a
10-2 home record this postseason, with an impressive +247 point
differential. They still have MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and a historic
68-win regular season backing them. However, if the postseason were
determined solely on paper, the Pacers would have been eliminated weeks
ago.
In a single-game scenario, a Game 7 presents a unique challenge. The
atmosphere is tense, and nerves can play a significant role. The
question arises: who will feel more pressure—the young, favored Thunder,
who have faced several close losses this postseason, or the resilient
Pacers, who have defied expectations with historic upsets?
The Game 7 Dynamics
As the series progresses to Game 7, both teams will have adapted to
each other's strategies. The pace of the game often slows, and success
frequently hinges on making tough shots. While Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
can deliver in clutch moments, the Thunder have struggled when he is not
supported by his teammates. Conversely, nearly every member of the
Pacers' rotation possesses a unique skill set, making them versatile and
difficult to defend. They have maintained their momentum throughout the
postseason, and Game 7 should be no different.
Although the Pacers will begin Game 7 as underdogs, it may take a
significant lead in the second half for them to finally be viewed as
favorites. They have thrived under the weight of doubt throughout the
postseason, finding strength in their underdog status. Sunday presents
an opportunity for them to seize the spotlight and prove that being the
underdog does not preclude them from hoisting the championship trophy.
Game 6 Recap and Game 7 Preview
In Game 6, the Indiana Pacers delivered a commanding performance,
defeating the Oklahoma City Thunder 108-91 as 5.5-point underdogs,
forcing a decisive Game 7 in the 2025 NBA Finals. Remarkably, this
victory marked their 10th outright win as underdogs this postseason.
Despite this achievement, the Thunder opened as 8.5-point favorites
at BetMGM for Game 7, with a total set at 214.5—the lowest of the
Finals. Oklahoma City entered the Finals as a substantial -700 favorite,
while Indiana was a notable +500 underdog. Historically, only the 2004
Detroit Pistons have won a Finals series as underdogs with similar odds.
The Thunder also boasted the best against-the-spread record of any
regular-season team in the last 35 years, finishing 55-23-4 ATS, but
have struggled in the playoffs with a 10-12 ATS record. As they head
into Game 7, the Thunder were previously a -2500 favorite when leading
the series 3-2.
Sunday's matchup will mark the 20th Game 7 in NBA Finals history,
setting the stage for an unforgettable conclusion to the season.